Being Presumptuous

I loved Lego as a kid. I think most programmers over 25 did. It allowed us to create imaginative things in a very short time. And historically, having “building blocks” has been very helpful: try building a pyramid by sticking dung to a framework of twigs and branches.

The finer points of concerns like cohesion, decoupling, abstraction, encapsulation and modularity aside, basically we developers have been trying to make code into Lego all along. There is no single programming platform as ubiquitous as Lego, as the needs of the adult world are a little more complex than the need to create of infants, giving rise to the popularity of networked APIs. Hiding complexity behind interfaces, whether using a native API or one that’s network based, has worked, and is somewhat reminiscent of building with Lego. Or maybe an odd mix of Lego, Duplo and Knex. In any case, the world has an insatiable hunger for real Lego-like solutions. That killer solution to fully modular applications in “the cloud”…

PaaS Will Dominate: Resistance Is Futile

You’ve probably heard the term “PaaS”, and/or heard of Heroku. This service gained a lot of popularity since its inception in 2007. Since then there has been a boom in PaaS providers (too many to list), attracting even the big boys: Google (Google App Engine, 2008), Microsoft (Windows/Microsoft Azure, 2010) and IBM (IBM SoftLayer, 2013). There are differences between how different vendors handle the technical details, but the common denominator is that PaaS applications run as isolated instances (in whatever form) on the host infrastructure. Running web applications on a PaaS has many advantages: it’s scalable, fast to deploy and upgrade, reduces cost and eliminates server admin tasks. Some offerings include a Continuous Deployment stack, most if not all offer ready-to-use components offering storage, search and indexing, and even Big Data tooling and Business Intelligence services. Building Web applications this way makes it easy to create middleware applications, or more generally design Microservices. Promoting further modularity, more fine grained and immediate capacity up and down scaling.

Aside: I highly recommend that anyone interested in developing apps for a PaaS platform read “The Twelve-Factor App”.

Meanwhile, In The Office Space

The “enterprise” is slow to adapt. In part because of vendor lock-in by companies like IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, Cisco, EMC (VMware), and HP. One of those is being an extra nuisance. Who else than our old nemesis, the company that brought us IE6 and made every Web developer cry tears of despair. Microsoft may have already lost the game back around 2005 (a year after Gmail was released), it still dominates the desktop market with almost 80% in the U.S., over 85% in Europe and a whopping 96.5% in China. I wouldn’t say corporations are people, but I would certainly argue that people work there. So called “Enterprise” vendors give them what they know, a Windows-based UI. This runs deep, and Microsoft is going to ride that bull onto its inevitable demise. Presumably, a lot of companies and institutions outside of the U.S. are uneasy with using a hosting partner subject to U.S. law. Who can blame them, especially after Snowden leaked what everybody already knew: the U.S. government will do whatever is in the best interest of the U.S. And “a big FU to the rest of the world, even our so-called close allies”. Of course, U.S. companies are not a fan of NSA practices either, and everyone is worried about corporate espionage and random acts of terrorism. The point is that corporations, worldwide, are not standing in line to throw their IT infrastructure “off-premises”, unless they have a trusted local provider.

From a ZDNet blog post by Dion Hinchcliffe which has disappeared

The OpenStack Revolution

Back in 2010, Rackspace and NASA started a little project called “OpenStack”. Five years later, the open source IaaS solution has massive corporate support. To quote Wikipedia:

More than 200 companies have joined the project, including Acelio, Arista Networks, AT&T, AMD, Avaya, Canonical, Cisco, Citrix, Dell, Dreamhost, EMC, Ericsson, Go Daddy, Hewlett-Packard, Huawei, IBM, Intel, Internap, Juniper Networks, Mellanox, Mirantis, NEC, NetApp, Nexenta, Oracle, PLUMgrid, Pure Storage, Qosmos, Red Hat, SolidFire, SUSE Linux, VMware, VMTurbo and Yahoo!.

What the fuss is all about? OpenStack provides a suite of components integrating scalable, redundant storage and virtual machines with a hypervisor of choice: KVM, Xen, VMware, and even the Microsofts Windows-based Hyper-V. And it does this using an open source code base that can be self-hosted. Since then, more components have been added to create a more complete environment. Rackspace originally created OpenStack to compete with Amazon (AWS), and soon after decided the best way to do that would be to provide a transparant alternative.

“Amazon is a very well-known technology, but it’s still their technology; it’s a black box,” Curry said. “OpenStack is a known standard; anyone that wants to use OpenStack has free access to it and they can see the code.”

VMware Has Identity Crisis

OpenStack is going head to head with VMware’s own IaaS solution, vCloud, and may have joined the OpenStack Foundation in an attempt to stay ahead, or worse. It might even use some plays from Microsofts book. The same could be said for IBM or even Red Hat. In the end, I doubt it will really matter. OpenStack is extremely well backed; proprietary IaaS solutions are going down, eventually. VMware has flirted with open source before, most notably by acquiring SpringSource, the company behind the popular Java framework, and by developing Cloud Foundry, an open source PaaS solution. Parent company EMC, having acquired Agile Methodology consultants and developers Pivotal Labs, has since decided that Pivotal would be a more appropriate home for its “open” endeavors than VMware. EMC has been smarter than Oracle in this regard. How are you liking open source, Oracle? ;)

“VMware made waves this summer when it talked up a paid commercial version of its Cloud Foundry open-source PaaS, and that ruffled feathers among many of the partners VMware had encouraged to build PaaSes of their own based on Cloud Foundry. By offloading Cloud Foundry, VMware can avoid that distraction.”

Red Hat Throws In Its Open Source PaaS Solution

But VMware’s move may have come too late. Four years ago, May 2011, Red Hat went to market with OpenShift. OpenShift was originally a fully hosted IaaS and PaaS solution. It didn’t take off until they provided on-premises solutions, and released the code as the open source “OpenShift Origin”. It doesn’t show in this graph, but head over to Google Trends to see the correlation between news headlines and the spike of interest in OpenShift. The moment Red Hat announced it would offer a “on-premises” solution, interest in Cloud Foundry waned. The move to Pivotal was late and unconvincing. Not surprisingly, most of the interest comes from companies outside of the U.S., China leading the flock.

Google Supports Open Source App Engine Compatible Project

Contrary to Red Hat and EMC, Google has not open sourced the code behind its PaaS solution: Google App Engine. Maybe the platform code relies on exotic Google specific infrastructure details, or maybe Google just didn’t want to give away its hand, and with it its USP of “Hosted by Google, so you know it’s fast, massive, and shiny”. Most likely, it is because Google is targeting the same crowd as Heroku: smaller companies looking for solutions that are both advanced and cost-effective. No need to open source anything, no need to provide on-premises solutions. Google is not really an “enterprise cloud” player. 

But hey, if people really want to run App Engine apps on-premises, or are comforted by the idea of having that option, Google is all for it. Coming out of a research project by the U.S. National Science Foundation, but funded by IBM and Google, AppScale provides just that: portability for App Engine apps across different IaaS solutions. As always, Google is thinking long-term and cares more about you using their technology than you paying them money (right now). Luckily, interest in Google App Engine has been steadily declining. It doesn’t look like Google is going to win this one. But then Google gets in the container game (see below) by developing Kubernetes, a technology juicy enough for Red Hat to jump on it for the upcoming OpenShift 3 release. And of course, it offers hosting for containers driven by Kubernetes. Google is not just going to roll over and die.

Heroku Sells Out

That brave startup from 2007, breaking new ground and empowering startups, sold out to in 2010. Not many seemed to care though, as Heroku continues to grow. Salesforce fairly recently added “Heroku Enterprise” to its portfolio, but it’s targeted purely at customers of their CRM package. Heroku is still on top in startup circles, but that is going to change very soon…

The “New” Kid

Remember those “slumlord hosting” companies back in the early years of this century? You would get a Virtuozzo “virtual machine”, which was actually a container to provide isolation, sharing the kernel of the host machine. These servers were notoriously overbooked, undeservingly giving Virtuozzo a bad rep. In 2005, an open source version was released by parent company Parallels, called OpenVZ. This required custom Linux kernels, but Paralells teamed up with the Linux community and Google to release built-in containers 3 years later: LXC (Linux Containers). Cloud hosting company dotCloud saw the potential and their solution, originally built for in-house use was released as open source in early 2013, giving birth to Docker.

In a very short time, Docker has grown from a side project to one of the two most raved-about developments in “Cloud Land” (alongside OpenStack). Despite warnings from its creators that they did not consider Docker production-ready, A-list companies like eBay and again Rackspace jumped on Docker like lions on a steak. Docker’s aim is quite a bit broader than LXC (and uses its own libcontainer in place of LXC since version 0.9), but at its core has a more modest scope than full blown PaaS solutions.

Simply put, Docker provides a standard way to run PaaS-style apps, not bogged down by any vendor’s attempt to dominate the future of Web computing. Similar to OpenStack in that respect. Understandably, client companies and especially their developers are psyched. Enterprise PaaS providers are doing what they can to get on the docker train in time, including Microsoft, Red Hat, and IBM. But also new PaaS solutions, such as Deis, used and developed by startup OpDemand, then bought by Engine Yard, a company in the business even before Heroku. But Docker has a wider applicability than any specific PaaS platform. You don’t need all the entrails of PaaS hosting for Docker to be useful. The lightweight containers also make excellent Continuous Integration and Deployment tools, which is relatively easy to set up.

Making developers not in the position to use a PaaS platform in combination with a CD stack, drool all over Docker. And to seal the deal, Docker’s “Registry” is a lot like the application level package managers developers already use and love. On your average PaaS platform there’s something more analogous to the App Store or Google Play.  

What’s To Come?

Mah Crystal Ball

Let’s start with the obvious predictions: both OpenStack and Docker are going to the skies. They have both the business and developers behind them: there is no stopping these two any time soon. Whether full private PaaS solutions will take off is less certain. There is a challenger to Dockers rise: early Docker adopter and contributor CoreOS has developed an alternative to Docker, initially named Rocket, later renamed “rkt”. Pronounced pretty much the same. Design wise, it offers some advantages over Docker, and CoreOS itself is certainly an interesting option for running Docker containers. CoreOS is unlikely to drop Docker support any time soon so for rkt to replace Docker, CoreOS would first have to become the undisputed superior way of running Docker containers. Then maybe developers will slowly move to rkt, if by that time the network effect hasn’t already made that too much hassle.

But there are also alternatives to CoreOS, for one Project Atomic, which is what Red Hat uses for OpenShift 3. Project Atomic in turn relies on Kubernetes, developed by Google. Engine Yard is still small, and relies on AWS for infrastructure, but OpenShift still has Cloud Foundry to contest with. For a while at least. With Deis, Engine Yard hopes to ride the Docker train early (and Web developing Twitter has noticed), finally taking off. OpenShift will switch to Docker (as it’s a downstream dependency of Project Atomic) in June, which may already be too late in this game. I might be wrong on this one, but hey where’s the fun in only obvious predictions. Google is probably not going to push very hard on its own Container Engine service for a while. They label it alpha, at most it’ll attract some early adopters fond of Google. They’ll probably let their Kubernetes project mature a bit first. It doesn’t need to make money, it needs it foot in the door.

What about Heroku? Doomed, unless they fully integrate Docker very, very soon. Which is unlikely, unless it can somehow run ”Dyno’s” and containers alongside each other, effortlessly. Even then, their growth potential is limited. Goodbye Heroku. Nodejitsu already bailed in Februari, Google App Engine will soon follow. And IBM, Microsoft? I don’t see much happening there either way. They’ll probably keep trying for few more years, they can afford it. Rackspace is likely to keep growing at a decent pace. So will PaaS become the de-facto standard everywhere? Probably not in the near feature. Containers such as Docker and Rocket are on a much more likely trajectory of fast ubiquitousness, so are Microservices. These, and not PaaS, are the Lego developers have been waiting for. Maybe we could stop using the term PaaS too, that’d be nice.

Thanks for reading.